An Unholy Alliance

I find human behavior fascinating. Call me peculiar, but I enjoy observing people and figuring out what makes them tick or why they are acting the way they are. I’ve been known to waste time watching crime documentaries looking to understand the motivation or behavior of those who committed some heinous crimes. It is also why I find politics interesting.

There is no shortage of odd behavior in politics to consider. For example, you could get wrapped up in reacting to every little thing the President says that challenges your senses of right and wrong and spend all your time in misery land. Even though I love human behavior, I choose not to engage in that activity. But some people do, they are absorbed by everything he does and are ready to freak out at a moment’s notice. The most ardent Trump supporters like to say these people are obsessed with the President and have Trump derangement syndrome, and to be fair they are not wrong. But to also be fair, the people who label Trump haters with that moniker suffer from their own version of Trump derangement syndrome.

I think it is fair to say there is a thin line between brilliance and wacky. I don’t know which camp the President fits in. What I do believe is he has a unique ability to hear about something and despite all other facts that counter the tale he has heard, believe it. Further, he is a master of stating something as though it is fact and having people believe what he says is the truth. I have come to believe part of his success is that he truly believes what he says, no matter how crazy it might be. I think he believes if he says it, it either must be true or it will be true because he said it. That is an extraordinary approach, and I guess it can work; it certainly works for him.

Which brings me to what I find fascinating about the current environment. There are a group of people who support Trump and regardless of what he says, they believe it is true or will be true because he has the power to make it true. That segment of the population is his core, and although interesting (in a weird sort of way), it isn’t the group I spend my time observing.

I am interested in the segment of the population that voted for Trump, but doesn’t believe everything he says, or believes, despite the fact he said he would do something extreme; he doesn’t really mean it and wouldn’t do that. This group is moderate in today’s climate and generally in the middle of the electorate. They are best described as people who may not like Trump and all he says and does but are aligned with one or two things he said he will do that serves their interest; maybe it is immigration, or more likely it is money; a less regulatory environment and lower taxes.

I have a lot of friends and colleagues in this category. They scoff at much of what he says and voted last year thinking his second term would be much like his first, good for them; they placed their vote, assuming there was little to no threat he would do the wild things he promised to do. Boy, are they surprised.

What I am watching now with interest is how this group will react in the coming months. No longer is the President mostly talk; he is acting on his bluster and his actions are beginning to infringe on those who supported him thinking he would deliver on what they cared about.

Let’s be honest, you might find a few people who will embrace the recent tariff insanity, but you won’t find many. In fact, you will be hard pressed to gather more than a few economists, business leaders, or institutional investors who support what has happened. The recent meltdown in the stock market reflects that. I don’t need to drone on about his economic policy decisions, plenty of people do that, but he doesn’t appear to currently have the same level of support from the people, who held their nose and ignored his behavior, and still voted for him last fall. No longer can they ignore the fact that Trump has frequently said for decades, “Tariffs is one of the most beautiful words in the English language.”

I’m guessing, the market throwing up is getting the attention of those who assumed their support of Trump would bring them outsized economic gain. Let’s be honest, for most observers, what happened last week was different. Veteran investors take market downturns as an opportunity, an inevitable occurrence that they can manage around. Rarely, however, do they have to price self-inflicted actions into their math. Said differently, they are now wondering what is next. I heard a guy on CNBC say, “It never occurred to me he would do all the stupid stuff he always talks about.”

I don’t know how to process that comment. Can anyone really be surprised when someone tells you what they are going to do, and in fact, wakes up with new power and begins to act on what they said. Facts be damned.

I think this is the most interesting time in my life to observe the interplay between politics and business. Trump has gone beyond his promise for lower taxes and less regulation, he has put the US on the path towards a recession. Over the weekend, JP Morgan upped their probability of global recession to 60%.

I am intrigued to see how the Trump supporters who don’t live and die on his every word are going to react. My guess is it won’t be kind.

And frankly, that is good news. World history shows us many examples of leaders rising to power on the backs of an elite class; only to discover they couldn’t control their anointed leader and regret it when the person in power plays to their own tune; ignoring the very people who got them in their seat. Yes, he won with his MAGA core, but without the white collar, college educated suburban voter with a 401k, he wouldn’t have. And they need to speak up and be heard.

Trump derangement syndrome is real, on both sides. Far too many people either love him or hate him; that is a fact that will take time to break the spell. What won’t take time is for the people who are under no spell, but practical in their thinking to voice their concern. You know the ones, the people who wanted their lives to be better; to pay less taxes. It doesn’t take long for those people to stand up and say, lower taxes are great, but if the economy is in the tank and I am making less in my business and investments, I have gained nothing.

Human behavior is fascinating. It is fun to watch and to predict. However, I can safely declare I have no idea what is going to happen next. I do know, I am going to be keenly watching the unholy alliance between our President and those who have a narrow view of his value. I can’t wait to see what happens next.